Boeing predicts 38,000 new airplanes demand in 20 years
Boeing, plane maker has projected a demand for 38,000 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 3.5 percent from last year’s forecast. According to its annual Current Market Outlook (CMO), recently, it estimated the total value of those new airplanes at $5.6 trillion.
The Vice President of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Randy Tinseth said: “The commercial airplane market continues to be strong and resilient. “As we look forward, we expect the market to continue to grow and the demand for new aircraft to be robust.”
Boeing stated that by the end of the forecast period, the commercial airplane fleet will double, from 21,600 airplanes in 2014 to 43,560 airplanes in 2034. Fifty-eight percent of the 38,050 airplanes delivered over that time will be to accommodate growth, it added.
The company further noted that passenger traffic will continue to grow at about a 4.9 percent annual pace, near the historic trend line of 5 percent.
Also, stating that, more than 7 billion passengers will fly by the end of the forecast period. While the cargo traffic will grow at about 4.7 percent per year.
It also said that the single-aisle market would continue to be the fastest-growing, largest overall segment, requiring 26,730 airplanes over the coming two decades.
According to Boeing, these aircraft are the foundation of the world’s airline fleet, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of the world’s commercial aviation routes. This sector is fueled by growth in low-cost carriers and airlines in developing and emerging markets, it noted.
“At the heart of the single-aisle market are the Boeing 737-800 and the future 737 MAX 8.”These airplanes offer customers the most fuel efficiency, reliability and capability in this class”, Tinseth.
“About 35 percent of the single-aisle market will go to low-cost carriers, Tinseth noted. “Low-cost carriers will require airplanes that combine the best economics with the most revenue potential. With 20 percent lower fuel use, the 737 MAX 200 will be the ideal machine for them”, he added.
However, Boeing forecasted that the widebody segment will require 8,830 new airplanes, led by small widebody airplanes in the 200- to 300-seat range such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner.
This year’s forecast reflects a continued shift in demand from very large airplanes to efficient new twin-engine products such as the 787 and new 777X, said Boeing. While airline growth still accounts for the majority of new demand, a large and growing number of aging aircraft will require replacement.
About 2 to 3 percent of the installed fleet will require replacement each year. “The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are perfectly positioned to capture this important wave of replacement,” Tinseth said. The air cargo market would continue to strengthen, and will drive demand of some 920 new airplanes over the 20-year forecast.
He said: “We’ve seen two years of solid growth in the air cargo market and we expect that growth to continue,” Tinseth said. “That’s great news for our line of production freighters, including the 747-8, 767 and 777.”
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